Emissions Impossible
Cerulogy supported the Changing Markets Foundation with the analysis of methane emissions presented in their Emissions Impossible report, highlighting the climate change impact of companies in the meat and dairy industry.
Considerations for addressing indirect land use change in Danish biofuel regulation
This report for the Danish Energy Agency presents an overview and review of indirect land use change modelling, and provides a discussion of options for Denmark to adjust its biofuel policy to take further account of indirect land use change emissions.
Efficient Energy
In this report for Transport and Environment we review the efficiency benefits of electric drive vehicles against combustion engines, and discuss how this efficiency differential could be appropriately reflected in revisions to the Renewable Energy Directive.
Cerulogy 2022Aviation biofuels in Spain
This report for the Spanish NGO Ecologistas en Acción considers the potential for the development of an aviation biofuel industry in Spain. It notes that it may be challenging to reorient existing renewable diesel capacity to aviation fuel production because of the need to find non-food feedstocks if the fuel is to be counted under the EU’s ReFuelEU policy, and that advanced alternative aviation fuel technologies will be needed to deliver long term growth in the sector.
Multiple and cover cropping in Brazil
Over recent decades the use of cover crops as part of the “sistema plantio direto” has become an important feature of Brazilian agriculture. In much of Brazil a second ‘safrinha’ (off season) corn crop is grown after a soy crop, and Brazilian safrinha corn is now a major contributor to the global corn supply. This report for the International Council on Clean Transportation reviews the status of cover cropping and safrinha cropping in Brazil, and discusses the potential for these crops to contribute to meeting biofuel feedstock demand. In the context of the European Renewable Energy Directive, it has been suggested that safrinha corn could potentially be treated as an intermediate crop and exempted it from limitations on support for food-based biofuels. The report argues, however, that as the safrinha corn crop is already well integrated into the global grain supply diverting it for biofuel use in Europe would create new land demand and under the terms of the Directive it could not therefore be exempted from the food-and-feed crop cap.
There may be opportunities to develop new second cropping systems either by finding ways to deliver economically viable harvests from cover crops already in use or by adapting winter crops such as brassica carinata to Brazilian conditions. Supporting the development of such models could provide a sustainable biofuel feedstock supply and provide long-term co-benefits in terms of food production.
Animal, vegetable or mineral (oil)?
The United States is in a period of rapid expansion of vegetable oil hydrotreating capacity, which will greatly increase the potential to supply renewable diesel and renewable jet fuel under the Renewable Fuel Standard and state-level policies. This report for the International Council on Clean Transportation reviews the prospects for the industry, identifying the potential for a five-fold expansion to more than 5 billion gallons per year by 2024. This could create up to 17 million metric tons of additional demand for oils and fats, only a fraction of which could be met through forecast increases in domestic soy oil production and increased utilization of waste and residual oils another 150 million gallons. Beyond this, increasing production would mean either an expansion of domestic soy and canola, dramatic increases in canola and palm oil imports, or massive displacement of feedstock from other uses. Domestic biodiesel production is likely to be strongly impacted, with waste oils and fats in particular diverted to renewable diesel production.
Limits on feedstock availability and limits on the support available for renewable diesel production mean that the market will not likely support a 5 billion gallons industry in the near future. Even so, there is a high risk that increased U.S. renewable diesel production will indirectly drive expansion of palm oil in Southeast Asia, where the palm oil industry is still endemically associated with deforestation and peat destruction.
*Erratum: when originally published the y-axis of Figure 11 was marked as billion liters, but this should have read billion gallons.
SAFty in numbers
As part of the Green Deal, the European Commission has launched the “ReFuelEU Aviation Initiative” to increase the role of “sustainable aviation fuels” in EU aviation. This report for Transport and Environment discusses the potential supply of different SAF categories in 2030, and what might be required to deliver a rapid supply expansion. This includes presenting results from a simple bottom-up SAF production model, and discussing what an ambitious but potentially achievable level might be for a GHG intensity reduction target for 2030 aviation fuel.
Fuelling Development
This report for Transport and Environment, written in partnership with David Calderbank Consulting, considers options for the development of alternative transport energy policy in the UK under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). It discusses issues including adding renewable transport fuel obligations on aviation and marine fuel use, crediting renewable electricity use by electric vehicles, and improving the investment case for advanced alternative fuel projects. It includes a detailed proposal for a novel policy system using ‘contracts for difference’ to provide minimum revenue guarantees to investors in chosen advanced alternative fuel projects, thus enhancing the effectiveness of the RTFO development fuel mandate as an investment driver.
Soy, land use change and ILUC-risk
In its assessment of which biofuel feedstocks should be considered ‘high ILUC-risk’, the European Commission found that soy oil was associated with second highest deforestation risk of the biofuel feedstocks considered, but that the level of deforestation identified fell below the threshold for high ILUC-risk designation. This study for Transport and Environment reviews the relationship between soy and deforestation, with a focus on South America.
We didn’t start the fire!
This report for Transport and Environment reviews the role of biomass based energy in scenarios for meeting EU and global climate change targets.
Latest news
European Commission carbon removals workshop: ERW and OAEJanuary 12, 2026
