Multiple and cover cropping in Brazil

/in

Over recent decades the use of cover crops as part of the “sistema plantio direto” has become an important feature of Brazilian agriculture. In much of Brazil a second ‘safrinha’ (off season) corn crop is grown after a soy crop, and Brazilian safrinha corn is now a major contributor to the global corn supply. This report for the International Council on Clean Transportation reviews the status of cover cropping and safrinha cropping in Brazil, and discusses the potential for these crops to contribute to meeting biofuel feedstock demand. In the context of the European Renewable Energy Directive, it has been suggested that safrinha corn could potentially be treated as an intermediate crop and exempted it from limitations on support for food-based biofuels. The report argues, however, that as the safrinha corn crop is already well integrated into the global grain supply diverting it for biofuel use in Europe would create new land demand and under the terms of the Directive it could not therefore be exempted from the food-and-feed crop cap.

There may be opportunities to develop new second cropping systems either by finding ways to deliver economically viable harvests from cover crops already in use or by adapting winter crops such as brassica carinata to Brazilian conditions. Supporting the development of such models could provide a sustainable biofuel feedstock supply and provide long-term co-benefits in terms of food production.

Download report

Animal, vegetable or mineral (oil)?

/in

The United States is in a period of rapid expansion of vegetable oil hydrotreating capacity, which will greatly increase the potential to supply renewable diesel and renewable jet fuel under the Renewable Fuel Standard and state-level policies. This report for the International Council on Clean Transportation reviews the prospects for the industry, identifying the potential for a five-fold expansion to more than 5 billion gallons per year by 2024. This could create up to 17 million metric tons of additional demand for oils and fats, only a fraction of which could be met through forecast increases in domestic soy oil production and increased utilization of waste and residual oils another 150 million gallons. Beyond this, increasing production would mean either an expansion of domestic soy and canola, dramatic increases in canola and palm oil imports, or massive displacement of feedstock from other uses. Domestic biodiesel production is likely to be strongly impacted, with waste oils and fats in particular diverted to renewable diesel production.

Limits on feedstock availability and limits on the support available for renewable diesel production mean that the market will not likely support a 5 billion gallons industry in the near future. Even so, there is a high risk that increased U.S. renewable diesel production will indirectly drive expansion of palm oil in Southeast Asia, where the palm oil industry is still endemically associated with deforestation and peat destruction.

Download report

*Erratum: when originally published the y-axis of Figure 11 was marked as billion liters, but this should have read billion gallons.

SAFty in numbers

/in

As part of the Green Deal, the European Commission has launched the “ReFuelEU Aviation Initiative” to increase the role of “sustainable aviation fuels” in EU aviation. This report for Transport and Environment discusses the potential supply of different SAF categories in 2030, and what might be required to deliver a rapid supply expansion. This includes presenting results from a simple bottom-up SAF production model, and discussing what an ambitious but potentially achievable level might be for a GHG intensity reduction target for 2030 aviation fuel.

Download report

Fuelling Development

/in

This report for Transport and Environment, written in partnership with David Calderbank Consulting, considers options for the development of alternative transport energy policy in the UK under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). It discusses issues including adding renewable transport fuel obligations on aviation and marine fuel use, crediting renewable electricity use by electric vehicles, and improving the investment case for advanced alternative fuel projects. It includes a detailed proposal for a novel policy system using ‘contracts for difference’ to provide minimum revenue guarantees to investors in chosen advanced alternative fuel projects, thus enhancing the effectiveness of the RTFO development fuel mandate as an investment driver.

Download report

Soy, land use change and ILUC-risk

/in

In its assessment of which biofuel feedstocks should be considered ‘high ILUC-risk’, the European Commission found that soy oil was associated with second highest deforestation risk of the biofuel feedstocks considered, but that the level of deforestation identified fell below the threshold for high ILUC-risk designation. This study for Transport and Environment reviews the relationship between soy and deforestation, with a focus on South America.

Download report (external link)

We didn’t start the fire!

/in

This report for Transport and Environment reviews the role of biomass based energy in scenarios for meeting EU and global climate change targets.

Open link

Beyond biomass?

/in , ,

Within the European Union’s recast Renewable Energy Directive support is available not only to biofuels but also to ‘renewable fuels of non-biological origin’ (electrofuels) and to ‘recycled carbon fuels’ (fuels produced taking advantage of fossil energy in solid and gaseous waste streams).

This report for the International Council on Clean Transportation provides an introduction to the main issues in sustainability and lifecycle analysis associated with supporting these novel fuels.

Open link

 

Accentuating the positive?

/in ,

Estimating emissions associated with indirect land use change (ILUC) is a fundamental part of analysing the likely net GHG emissions impacts of biofuel mandates, and in some regulations (e.g. U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and ICAO’s CORSIA) estimates of ILUC emissions associated with specific feedstocks have been integrated into regulatory lifecycle analysis frameworks. This academic paper, co-authored by Chris Malins of Cerulogy with Richard Plevin and Robert Edwards, examines the development of one particular model for estimating ILUC emissions (GTAP-BIO) and asks how well supported by relevant data and/or analysis various adjustments and innovations introduced to the model over the past decade or so have been.

Particular attention is paid to a series of model amendments that have enhanced the role of intensive responses (increased productivity on existing agricultural land) in the model and reduced the predicted extent of land use changes from biofuel policy. The paper finds that there is a lack of compelling evidence supporting adopted assumptions, and that on more than one occasion model adjustments that have been presented as ‘neutral’ have in fact predictably resulted in reduced output ILUC values. It also notes that while the ‘cropland-pasture’ land category in the U.S. has been made central to the model outcomes there is very little evidence available to confirm that this is a realistic assumption, and that emission factors have been adopted for cropland-pasture conversion that are difficult to justify analytically. Reductions in modelled ILUC estimates ought therefore to be understood as at least as much the result of subjective decisions by the modelling teams involved as the result of any objectively demonstrable improvement in our understanding of the systems being studied.

The paper concludes that it is unclear whether more recent published ILUC estimates are likely to be closer to the ‘real’ average ILUC values for corn ethanol and soy biodiesel than higher values from earlier assessments.

Open link

Biofuel to the fire

/in , ,

In partnership with the Rainforest Foundation Norway, this report reviews the threat to tropical forests from continued expansion of mandates for palm- and soy-oil based biofuels.

RFN webpage
Download report

Destination deforestation

/in ,

The aviation industry identifies ‘sustainable aviation fuels’ as a key tool to manage the growing climate impact of aviation. There are, however, fundamental differences between the sustainability risks associated with the scaling up of the different available alternative aviation fuel technologies. At present, the only alternative aviation fuel technology that is operational at commercial scale is ‘HEFA’ (hydroprocessed esters and
fatty acids), which can be produced at renewable diesel facilities. The feedstocks for HEFA production are primarily vegetable oils, and a rapid expansion of demand for HEFA fuels would put considerable pressure on the global vegetable oil market. That can be expected to lead directly or indirectly to increased production of palm and soy oils. Both the oil palm and soybean crop are associated with ongoing tropical deforestation.

In this report for the Rainforest Foundation Norway, we review the potential for growth in palm oil and soy oil demand due to the introduction of ‘sustainable’ aviation fuel support policies. The report shows that delivering stated ambition without actively managing the technologies and feedstocks used could increase vegetable oil demand by tens of millions of tonnes, and details the potential deforestation, peat loss and climate implications of meeting those targets with a significant contribution from palm and soy oils.

While the worst case scenario is that stated aviation targets would be met without managing the feedstock mix, the report also notes that it currently seems likely that most of the targets discussed will be missed entirely. If so, aviation needs to find viable options to manage its climate impact – that may well need to involve management and limitation of demand growth.

Visit the Rainforest Foundation Norway website
Download report