How e-fuels can mitigate biodiversity risk in EU aviation and maritime policy

This report, commissioned by Opportunity Green on behalf of the Skies and Seas Hydrogen-fuels Accelerator Coalition (SASHA), explores the biodiversity risks associated with the EU’s efforts to decarbonise aviation and maritime transport. The ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations aim to engender a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and towards alternative fuels; but this raises concerns for nature protection, potentially undermining the EU’s biodiversity commitments under the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the Nature Restoration Regulation. Cerulogy’s report assesses how different fuel pathways – biofuels from crops, residues and waste oils, and synthetic e-fuels – compare in terms of pressure on land, habitats, species, and ecosystems.

Cerulogy modelled alternative fuel demand in the aviation and maritime segments to 2050. We considered four scenarios representing different dominant fuel production technologies: cellulosic residues, cellulosic crops, lipids, and electrofuels. For each scenario, we estimated feedstock and land requirements, and developed a biodiversity risk framework to evaluate land-use change, habitat degradation, species loss, pollution, and agrochemical use. To assess policy coherence, we examined trade-offs and synergies between the EU’s transport decarbonisation goals and its nature and biodiversity policy framework.

Our findings show that, while all fuel pathways carry some environmental risk, electrofuels may represent the lowest overall risk to biodiversity, largely due to their minimal land footprint and reduced pressure on ecosystems, species, and habitats. Even biofuels derived from residues and wastes may have implications for nature when scaled to meet growing fuel demand. The EU’s current approach risks locking in high-impact fuel systems unless it also addresses total energy use in aviation and shipping. Until policymakers are ready to confront demand growth in these hard-to-decarbonise sectors, support for options like electrofuels may be the clearest path for the EU to aligning its climate and biodiversity goals.