European Commission carbon removals workshop: DOCCS and mineral carbonation

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Cerulogy delivered a European Commission workshop on two carbon removal activities, in partnership with ICF and Ecodiversity. Direct ocean carbon capture and storage (DOCCS) encompasses a number of technologies that extract carbon dioxide from seawater for eventual geological storage. Mineral carbonation involves the absorption and permanent binding of carbon dioxide into materials (concrete and alkaline industrial wastes) in the form of solid carbonates.

The one-day workshop took place on 09th February 2026 with the goal of gathering input from experts and stakeholders to inform the CRCF process. Cerulogy and Ecodiversity presented technical reports that provided an overview of how the carbon removal pathways work, challenges in implementation, issues around quantification and baselining, and potential sustainability impacts. Experts from academia and industry presented on specific topics, and participated in discussions.

Presentations and workshop recording

Updated evidence on ‘high indirect land-use change risk’ biofuel feedstock

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Between 2020 and 2024 Cerulogy supported Guidehouse, GRAS and IIASA in updating the evidence base on the deforestation associated with biofuel feedstock crops, as  an input to the European Commission’s assessment of which biofuel crops pose a high indirect land-use change (ILUC) risk. The work includes new satellite data analysis demonstrating the continued linkage between some biofuel crops and deforestation – notably oil palm in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America.

This technical analysis has informed a proposal by the Commission to update the EU’s list of high ILUC-risk feedstocks to include soybeans.

Read the report
Read the proposal and respond to the consultation

European Commission carbon removals workshop: ERW and OAE

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Cerulogy delivered a European Commission workshop on two carbon removal technologies, in partnership with ICF and Ecodiversity. The ocean is the Earth’s largest reservoir of carbon (in the form of dissolved inorganic carbon, or DIC): by adding alkalinity to the Earth’s surface, watercourses and/or oceans, enhanced rock weathering (ERW) and ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) seek to augment this reservoir and stimulate net draw-down of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The one-day workshop took place on 25th September 2025 with the goal of gathering input from experts and stakeholders to inform the CRCF process. Cerulogy and Ecodiversity presented technical reports that provided an overview of how the carbon removal pathways work, challenges in implementation, thorny issues around quantification and baselining, and potential sustainability impacts. Ten ERW/OAE experts from academia and industry presented on specific topics, and participated in discussions.

Presentations and workshop recording
Review paper on OAE
Review paper on ERW

 

Diverted harvest: Environmental Risk from Growth in International Biofuel Demand

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In this report for Transport and Environment, we describe the biofuel policy frameworks and targets of the nine leading global producers and consumers: the USA, Brazil, the EU+UK, Indonesia, China, India, Argentina, Canada, and Thailand. The report links these countries’ biofuel feedstock demand to ecological risks, to the carbon opportunity cost of using extra land for agriculture, and to the greenhouse gas implications of relying on biofuels to displace fossil fuels.

We calculate that about 32 Mha of cropland is currently devoted to biofuel feedstock production after accounting for co-product allocation. The benefit of this, as conventionally calculated (i.e. ignoring ILUC), is a 233 MtCO2e/year emissions saving compared to an equivalent amount of fossil fuels. But returning this land to its natural state — and replenishing its above- and below-ground carbon — could provide a much larger carbon sink of 428 MtCO2e/year. While rewilding of agricultural land on this scale is not currently plausible, these numbers underscore the importance of thinking about land use in ways that aren’t readily captured by conventional lifecycle analysis.

Under present policy targets, biofuel consumption in the nine study countries is set to increase from 104 Mtoe in 2023 to 150 Mtoe in 2030. Given existing and future feedstock slates, and constraints on advanced and residual feedstock supply, we conclude that over 90% of this is likely to come from crops: that means an extra 20 Mha devoted to biofuels worldwide. Accounting for the range of crops grown in each country, we calculate that if ILUC is taken into account, biofuel policy in 2030 will increase emissions from transport fuels by 34 MtCO2e/year compared to 2023.

The EU+UK and Thailand are found to have adopted policies that are reducing biofuel-associated emissions down over time. The USA, India, and Indonesia, by contrast, are expected to expand use of high-ILUC palm and soybean oils, and so their biofuel policies are likely to be harming rather than benefitting the climate.

Download our report
Read the T&E briefing

Methodology for assessing greenhouse gas emissions savings from low-carbon fuels

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Cerulogy worked with ‘Future Cleantech Architects’ to produce a report for the European Parliament’s ITRE committee on the European Commission’s proposal for an LCA methodology for ‘low carbon fuels’ – in the regulatory parlance this category excludes renewable fuels, and primarily consists of blue hydrogen and electrolytic hydrogen produced with [partly] non-renewable energy (and synthetic hydrocarbon fuels derived from that hydrogen). The report discusses the methodology proposal, reviews default values included for natural gas supply, and discusses potential costs for low carbon hydrogen.

Link to the report

A federal clean fuel standard (CFS) for the USA

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Clean fuel standards (CFSs) are regulations which reward or penalise transport fuels based on their lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions — in particular, their emissions with respect to a ‘compliance standard’ which tightens each year. A number of CFSs are already in operation around the world.

Our paper published in the journal Energy Policy examines a hypothetical CFS covering the USA’s road and aviation segments. We model two transport decarbonisation scenarios: one with an emphasis on road electrification, and the other with an emphasis on next-generation liquid fuels and CCS. Both are designed to be consistent with a net-zero-2050 target for the USA’s economy as a whole, with road transport achieving a 87-94% carbon intensity cut and aviation ∼84% (excluding contrails). The electrification-heavy scenario offers faster and deeper emissions cuts, as well as being a significantly cheaper decarbonisation option.

The development and results of these scenarios provide context for considering CFS design issues: the ambition of targets, how to drive investment, and the need for restrictions on certain biofuel feedstocks.

Download the paper

Biochar and carbon accounting

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Biochar: accounting for carbon benefits of production and use

This report, commissioned by the International Council of Clean Transportation (ICCT), explores different pathways for crediting biochar in greenhouse gas lifecycle accounting frameworks. We focus on existing regulations such as the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) and the UK’s Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), which allow credit for soil carbon accumulation through improved agricultural management practices.

As biochar moves towards a mainstream role in agriculture and carbon markets, there is a clear need for robust accounting guidance. Through worked examples and policy analysis, the study unpacks key methodological questions around how biochar’s role, as both a soil amendment and a carbon removal product, may be fairly and accurately accounted in carbon crediting frameworks. We identify key safeguards, improvements to existing frameworks, and the need for measures to limit the risk of double crediting.

Download the report

Staying Aloft: Support Mechanisms for ‘Sustainable Aviation Fuels’ in the United Kingdom and European Union

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The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation and the UK’s SAF Mandate place requirements on fuel suppliers to bring alternative aviation fuels to market. In parallel, financial support for alternative fuels comes from the EU’s reimbursement scheme, which subsidises some fraction of the cost difference paid by airlines, and the UK’s guaranteed strike price (GSP), which shields SAF producers from variability in market prices.

This report examines the policy frameworks in the two regions and reviews their strengths and weaknesses. It finds that the structure and targeting of their complementary support mechanisms will deliver diverging outcomes. The EU’s reimbursement scheme will benefit airlines and reduce the costs to flyers, but will do little to motivate next-generation fuel producers. In contrast, the UK’s GSP delivers clear reassurance to fuel producers and is more likely to stimulate investment in the industry by facilitating finance availability and reducing the cost of capital.

The report presents illustrative model scenarios and concludes by distilling major challenges and recommendations for the two policy frameworks.

  • The EU’s mandate trajectory and its slightly obscure system of non-compliance penalties could be reviewed, and a joined-up approach adopted for targeting resources towards supporting investment in more sustainable alternative fuels.
  • For the UK, there are some important details to iron out about how price-setting works in the GSP; and a potentially vacillating balance of alternative fuel supply and demand from the EU may pose challenges for compliance and costs.
Download from the ICCT website

 

Global Automaker Rating 2024

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Who is leading the transition to electric vehicles?

For the last few years, Cerulogy has supported the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) with its annual Global Automaker Rating, an independent assessment of the world’s 20 largest automakers and their progress on zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The 2024 edition evaluates manufacturers across a range of indicators, including ZEV sales share, model availability, executive compensation, battery recycling commitments, and new this year, progress on adopting ‘green steel’ in vehicle production. The assessment draws on publicly available data and direct engagement with manufacturers to provide a comprehensive overview of corporate ambition and delivery.

ICCT’s annual reports track how the ZEV transition is becoming a defining feature of automakers’ global competitiveness. This year’s report highlights the rapid advance of Chinese manufacturers, who now dominate global ZEV sales. BYD surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales for the first time, while Chinese manufacturers secured five of the top six positions for EV sales share and led in ZEV model coverage. ICCT notes that China now accounts for more than 11 million EVs sold annually, over half the global total sales, thanks to a strong domestic market and decisive policy support. India’s Tata Motors also moved out of the ‘laggard’ category for the first time.

Cerulogy was pleased to review the 2024 assessment, verifying the source data used in calculations, checking methodological consistency, and identifying updates.

Link to the ICCT report

Deforestation risk from Nordic alternative fuel policy

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A report for Rainforest Foundation Norway

This report examines the climate and environmental risks associated with biofuel policies in Sweden, Finland, and Norway. While these countries are often recognised as climate leaders, their support for certain biofuel feedstocks, including palm derivatives, used cooking oil, and animal fats, raises concerns about indirect land use change, deforestation, and peatland degradation. The findings suggest that without further safeguards, Nordic biofuel demand could drive deforestation and peat loss amounting to tens of thousands of hectares annually by 2030.

Finland consumes particularly high volumes of PFAD – palm fatty acid distillates – in its biofuel sector. PFAD is a valuable by-product of palm oil refining, and is linked to the expansion of oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia. Sweden and Norway have taken steps to exclude PFAD, but continue to rely heavily on residual oils, which come with their own environmental challenges. In all three countries, current policy frameworks do not fully account for indirect emissions or the global displacement effects of feedstock use.

This report provides country-specific recommendations to align Nordic biofuel policy with climate and biodiversity goals, including capping high-risk feedstocks, supporting the development of advanced alternatives, and accelerating transport electrification. The analysis underscores the importance of embedding strong environmental safeguards in biofuel policy to ensure that efforts to decarbonise transport do not undermine broader sustainability objectives.

Download the report from the Rainforest Foundation Norway website