Modelling Clean Fuel Standards in the USA

Clean fuel standards (CFSs) and low-carbon fuel standards (LCFSs) are regulations which oblige fuel suppliers to meet a gradually tightening target for the average emissions intensity of their fuels. CFSs already exist (or are under consideration) in several USA states and in Canada.

Cerulogy has developed a model for the USA’s road transport sector covering the period 2015-50 (aviation is included in later iterations). This is a flexible, user-oriented tool for building CFS scenarios covering any USA state or the country as a whole.

The ‘technical annex’ linked here introduces the model, detailing its capabilities and its underlying workings. These are demonstrated by considering a hypothetical national CFS operating from 2025, incorporating outputs from the Annual Decarbonization Perspective 2022. The illustrative scenario achieves a nominal 98% reduction in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from road transport fuels by 2050 (including CCS credits and treating renewable electricity as zero-emissions).