Diverted harvest: Environmental Risk from Growth in International Biofuel Demand

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In this report for Transport and Environment, we describe the biofuel policy frameworks and targets of the nine leading global producers and consumers: the USA, Brazil, the EU+UK, Indonesia, China, India, Argentina, Canada, and Thailand. The report links these countries’ biofuel feedstock demand to ecological risks, to the carbon opportunity cost of using extra land for agriculture, and to the greenhouse gas implications of relying on biofuels to displace fossil fuels.

We calculate that about 32 Mha of cropland is currently devoted to biofuel feedstock production after accounting for co-product allocation. The benefit of this, as conventionally calculated (i.e. ignoring ILUC), is a 233 MtCO2e/year emissions saving compared to an equivalent amount of fossil fuels. But returning this land to its natural state — and replenishing its above- and below-ground carbon — could provide a much larger carbon sink of 428 MtCO2e/year. While rewilding of agricultural land on this scale is not currently plausible, these numbers underscore the importance of thinking about land use in ways that aren’t readily captured by conventional lifecycle analysis.

Under present policy targets, biofuel consumption in the nine study countries is set to increase from 104 Mtoe in 2023 to 150 Mtoe in 2030. Given existing and future feedstock slates, and constraints on advanced and residual feedstock supply, we conclude that over 90% of this is likely to come from crops: that means an extra 20 Mha devoted to biofuels worldwide. Accounting for the range of crops grown in each country, we calculate that if ILUC is taken into account, biofuel policy in 2030 will increase emissions from transport fuels by 34 MtCO2e/year compared to 2023.

The EU+UK and Thailand are found to have adopted policies that are reducing biofuel-associated emissions down over time. The USA, India, and Indonesia, by contrast, are expected to expand use of high-ILUC palm and soybean oils, and so their biofuel policies are likely to be harming rather than benefitting the climate.

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Cows from the cover of Emissions Impossible

Emissions Impossible

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Cerulogy supported the Changing Markets Foundation with the analysis of methane emissions presented in their Emissions Impossible report, highlighting the climate change impact of companies in the meat and dairy industry.

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For peat’s sake

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This report, commissioned by the Rainforest Foundation Norway (cf. www.regnskog.no/en/news/norway-bans-palm-oil-based-biofuel-in-its-public-procurement), reviews the evidence on the implications of using palm oil to produce biofuel. The report concludes that in all likelihood when renewable fuel policies drive increased palm oil demand the outcomes are worse for the climate than simply continuing to use fossil fuels. In addition to the disastrous climate impact of deforestation and peat-loss in Southeast Asia, oil palm expansion has severe impacts on biodiversity in some of the world’s most ecologically rich habitats. The publication of the report follows news that the Norwegian Parliament has called on the government to ban public procurement of palm oil based biofuels.

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Denial of long-term issues with agriculture on tropical peatlands will have devastating consequences

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Following the 16th International Peat Congress (IPC) in Kuching (Sarawak), Malaysia, widely read media reported that the congress supported the view that current agricultural practices in peatland areas, such as oil palm plantations, do not have a negative impact on the environment. However, this view is not shared by many of the participants, and does not reflect the broad message conveyed by the research presented at the congress.

In an effort to correct these statements, a number of the world’s leading researchers and practitioners from around the world have come together to publish a letter in Global Change Biology, one of the world’s leading environmental science journals. The 139 authors represent 115 government, academic, industry and non-governmental organizations from 20 countries. Forty of these organizations are based in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore; the countries most directly impacted by the adverse consequences of unsustainable management of tropical peatlands.

The consensus achieved in this paper is unprecedented. The letter confirms that the weight evidence presented at the congress, backed by many decades of scientific research, is unequivocal: business-as-usual management is not sustainable for tropical peatland agriculture and can no longer be justified.  

While truly sustainable peatland agriculture methods do not yet exist, the scientific community and industry are already collaborating in the search for solutions, including interim measures to mitigate ongoing rates of peat loss under existing plantations. Not only is this of global importance in the fight against climate change, it is also key to ensure future economic wealth in tropical peatland rich regions. Indeed, failing to recognize the devastating far-reaching consequences of the way in which peatlands are being managed and failing to work together to address them could mean that the next generations will in fact have to deal with an irreversibly altered, dysfunctional landscape.

For further information contact:

Lahiru Wijedasa

National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Email: Phone: +65-90667160

 

Dr Roxane Andersen

Environmental Research Institute, University of Highlands and Islands, United Kingdom.

Email: Phone: +44(0)1847889572

Article details:

Wijedasa LS, Jauhiainen J, Könönen M et al. (2016) Denial of long-term issues with agriculture on tropical peatlands will have devastating consequences. Global Change Biology. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13516/abstract