Diverted harvest: Environmental Risk from Growth in International Biofuel Demand
In this report for Transport and Environment, we describe the biofuel policy frameworks and targets of the nine leading global producers and consumers: the USA, Brazil, the EU+UK, Indonesia, China, India, Argentina, Canada, and Thailand. The report links these countries’ biofuel feedstock demand to ecological risks, to the carbon opportunity cost of using extra land for agriculture, and to the greenhouse gas implications of relying on biofuels to displace fossil fuels.
We calculate that about 32 Mha of cropland is currently devoted to biofuel feedstock production after accounting for co-product allocation. The benefit of this, as conventionally calculated (i.e. ignoring ILUC), is a 233 MtCO2e/year emissions saving compared to an equivalent amount of fossil fuels. But returning this land to its natural state — and replenishing its above- and below-ground carbon — could provide a much larger carbon sink of 428 MtCO2e/year. While rewilding of agricultural land on this scale is not currently plausible, these numbers underscore the importance of thinking about land use in ways that aren’t readily captured by conventional lifecycle analysis.
Under present policy targets, biofuel consumption in the nine study countries is set to increase from 104 Mtoe in 2023 to 150 Mtoe in 2030. Given existing and future feedstock slates, and constraints on advanced and residual feedstock supply, we conclude that over 90% of this is likely to come from crops: that means an extra 20 Mha devoted to biofuels worldwide. Accounting for the range of crops grown in each country, we calculate that if ILUC is taken into account, biofuel policy in 2030 will increase emissions from transport fuels by 34 MtCO2e/year compared to 2023.
The EU+UK and Thailand are found to have adopted policies that are reducing biofuel-associated emissions down over time. The USA, India, and Indonesia, by contrast, are expected to expand use of high-ILUC palm and soybean oils, and so their biofuel policies are likely to be harming rather than benefitting the climate.
